The Trump administration's steep import tariff on Brazilian coffee looks set to reshuffle trade routes for beans from the world's top grower and exporter, benefiting China and incentivizing traders to look for indirect routes into the U.

Now, as the 90-day pause on those and other targeted US tariffs is set to expire, Trump has raised Brazil's rate to a whopping 50% – potentially launching a trade war with Latin America's biggest economy, which sells large amounts of beef, coffee, steel and other products to the United States.

Latin America’s biggest economy can weather the shock of a high tariff rate. But American coffee lovers and Brazilian ranchers are likely to feel the pain.