The path to power for Chris Hipkins is incredibly small. At the moment the count is 67 for the Government, 57 for Labour/Greens/TPM and seven for Opportunity so 67 to 64. There is a decent chance that ...

The election outcome has me both relieved, and sad. It's an emotional conflict which I have had a lot of lately (a family member recently died after a long period with Alzheimers). I am relieved ...

There are provisionally 131 MPs, a record high, in the 55th Parliament of New Zealand. There are 71 electorate MPs and 60 list MPs. On Patreon, I have done a detailed analysis of the breakdown of not ...

Here are the provisional results vs the final pre-election polls. The difference for each company vs the results was: So Curia had an average error of 0.5%, which I am obviously very pleased with. And ...

The Government currently has 67 seats out of 131, so a majority of three. They are in a good position to remain Government, but what could change with the final votes? I have modelled below what the ...

The results so far have 67 seats for the Government parties and 64 seats for the others. National has 42 electorate seats. Those with a small majority are: Hamilton East 456 Wairarapa 139 It is quite ...

Te Pāti Māori announced in August that they did not want party votes. They explicitly said they want to create overhang. Their MPs did not even party vote for TPM. And their strategy worked. In 2023 ...

The bean counters at the Taxpayers’ Union have done a final update on the extra spending that each party is promising. So there are two fiscally responsible parties, two fiscally irresponsible parties ...

Sir Henry Morgan For decades there’s been a steady push to reduce the rights of those accused of rape and get more convictions. This includes proposals to remove juries from rape trials, making ...

It's Election Day. Until the polls close at 7 pm don't make any comments that could be seen as advocating for who people should vote. I'll be on the Herald Now broadcast from 7 pm with Ryan Bridge and ...

Only the Names Have Changed: ACT’s proposed KiwiSaver tax exemption risks repeating the mistakes of New Zealand’s protected economic past ACT’s proposal to make KiwiSaver investment earnings tax-free ...

Results will start showing shortly. The final forecast from Nat Silver is: House Democrats at 96% probability to gain control Seat average forecast is Democrats 241, Republicans 194 Popular vote ...