When the polls close, how quickly the votes will be counted, and what FLIPR projects in the most important races of 2026.

This time, we’ll curate things a bit more.2 From among the 40,000 simulations that FLIPR ran on Saturday, I’ve chosen 13 ...

Republicans have a lot of problems, but there’s one common cause: Trump We’re long past the days when putting “Trump” in a headline would guarantee you a million clicks, but I wonder if we’ve been ...

You can leave questions for SBSQ #33 (the Larry Bird Edition) in the comments below. On the menu today: Why is the Silver ...

I don’t mean to suggest that FiveThirtyEight invented the concept of systematic polling error, but the FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin forecasts have accounted for it since their inception. It’s why ...

I woke up very early today.1 Believe it or not, I get more sleep than you might assume — and the extra hour helped — but I’m no longer as much of a night owl as I pretend to be. One thing I’ve always ...

Partially, that’s because Senate races have more general appeal than individual House races.1 Most people who are following ...

I’m going to be honest that I thought this was a fake headline when I first came across it on Twitter, sort of like I originally worried I might be hallucinating when I first heard about the Luka ...

Political commentators have been obsessed with potential polling error this cycle. And frankly, with the combination of recent high-profile misses and polls looking ...

What if Black voters turn out like it’s a presidential race? Democrats’ path to a Senate majority could become much more robust.